Warning: long geek rant. Read at your own risk!

An interesting read on Google vs. Microsoft.

Over the years, Microsoft has always managed to slay its opponents (Novell, Oracle, Netscape, Apple, IBM, Sun Microsystems, the European Union, et al). Some bounced back by clinging onto a niche the software giant was too lazy to swat (Novell). Others were agile enough to find other means of making money (IBM). Still others survived (arguably) because they made deals with the devil (Apple, in 1997). But they all fell to Gates’ juggernaut… until now.

[W]hat really bothers Gates is that Google is gaining the ability to attack the very core of Microsoft’s franchise—control over what users do first when they turn on their computers.

When I switch on my computer, one of the first things I do is log on to the internet. And when I’m on the internet, the first place I go to is – that’s right – Google. Nothing else can make me do that. Sure, I use Firefox as my browser, and iTunes as my MP3 player. Sure, a flavour of Linux + Apache is the preferred web server of choice. Sure, I think Apple’s OS X is far superior to Windows XP.

But none of those things is as ubiquitous as Google. It’s even entered the common vernacular as a substitute for “search”, as in: “Why don’t you just Google it?”. Blogger, the free web-based blogging software millions of people use, is owned by Google. Wikipedia, that vast web-based community-maintained encyclopaedia, is being supported by Google. GMail, Google’s free e-mail service, offers a whopping 2GB of storage (that’s increasing all the time), and is used by a significant proportion of people I know.

Yes, the storm is brewing. Microsoft is struggling mightily to beat the one thing Google is good at – searching. To put things into perspective, and to appreciate how hard this actually is, here’s what Squarebrain’s server (with WordPress) does when you visit our page: 1) checks a small database of less than 100 posts, 2) generates some HTML code in the order in which I’ve posted it, 3) sticks it up for you, the visitor, to see. All this takes about 0.15s (or so the timer tells me), with a puny 300-400 visitors per day.

Here’s what Google does when you run a search (not in this order): 1) checks a huge database of 8 billion pages (that’s 8, 000, 000, 000!), 2) figures out what you really meant (“smart ass” is more likely to return results about your joker classmate than an intelligent donkey), 3) checks its results for authoritativeness, reliability and relevance (Page Rank), 4) checks its advertisers for related advertising content, 5) generates some HTML code in order of relevance, 6) sticks it up for you, the visitor, to see. As of February 2003, Google handles some 250 million queries per day.

The average Google search takes about 0.2 – 0.3 seconds, and is relevant enough that you’ll more likely than not find what you’re looking for in the first page of results.

That’s what Microsoft is up against.

Microsoft’s most powerful weapon, it’s virtual monopoly on end-user operating systems, has nothing to do with Google’s ad-based business model. Google runs on Linux, freeing it from that particular trap. Google will still be running if every Microsoft product should disappear off the face of this earth (though only gleeful unix-heads and Apple users will be using it). Nothing Microsoft can do to Windows will affect how well Google functions.

That’s what Microsoft is up against.

Microsoft’s second most powerful weapon, its huge financial advantage, is blunted when dealing with Google. Microsoft killed Netscape by making their own product free – Google already costs nothing. Microsoft can literally spend billions to make a comparable search engine – Google’s already works. Microsoft could outright buy Google – but Google works on Linux, not Windows, and the company would be in an awkward position of using a competing product. Sure, Microsoft could conceivably throw enough money at Google to kill it, but it’s gonna hurt them bad.

That’s what Microsoft is up against.

Gates basically created the notion that success in software is a function of the IQ of your team, and for years Microsoft has prided itself on having the smartest employees on the planet. Now many of those overachievers feel as though they’ve gotten their first B.

Microsoft is fast losing its most intelligent, most experienced people to Google. Remember those mind-bending puzzle tests Microsoft gives hopeful employees/interns? Well, at least you understand them. Google’s tests are harder, yet fun. Those that get in, are treated to one of the most employee-friendly working environments Silicon Valley has to offer.

That’s what Microsoft is up against.

Google knows Microsoft is on to them. Google is taking the threat seriously, and is innovating like crazy to keep ahead of the lumbering behemoth. Froogle, Google News, Google Maps, Google Answers, Google Desktop Search, the list goes on and on, and shows no sign of letting up. Meanwhile, Microsoft is still struggling to get internet search right (irritatingly, a search for “squarebrain” doesn’t turn up in the front page of MSN Search right away; it seems to perform some other weird algorithm and only displays on the second try; on Google, it’s result #1 right off the bat).

Not to beleaguer my point, but that’s what Microsoft is up against.

To be fair, Gates has some tricks left up his sleeve. Being in control of proprietary document formats, Microsoft can presumably integrate search into Word, Excel, Powerpoint and Outlook better than Google can. Microsoft could make search run just off the desktop. Microsoft could go the way of Apple’s Spotlight, and integrate search directly into the OS itself (as it’s already doing in its next generation OS, Longhorn). Integration = ubiquity.

It could work. Microsoft’s penetration into the mind of the average user is not to be underestimated. Just the other day, I had a conversation involving Firefox which went like this:

Them: “What’s firefox?”
Me: “It’s a browser.”
Them: “What’s a browser?”
Me: “It’s a way of surfing the internet.”
Them: “Huh? Isn’t internet explorer the internet?”
Me: “No, the internet is just the internet. Internet explorer and firefox are both ways to use the internet.”
Them: “Wow, you learn something new every day.”

Note that these people aren’t ignorant fools; they’re fellow law students, just about as bright as they come. And they thought, through no fault of their own, that Internet Explorer = The Internet. See, the end-user doesn’t really care about “spyware” or “tabbed browsing” or “unsecured connections” or “firewalls” until it turns around and bites them in the ass. Up until then, if their computer works, it works; double-clicking on “Internet Explorer” will bring you to the internet, and that’s that.

So yes, Microsoft could conceivably take Google. But all this integration takes time, and time is something Microsoft doesn’t have, as Google gains more and more momentum and becomes ever more entrenched as the go-to guy for search.

How much time until Search the Internet = Google?

I don’t know, but damn it’s fun to see it happening =).